Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 2.704945 2.880067 3.072234 3.301154 3.569796 3.879603 4.271101
2025-02-16 2.462859 2.694801 2.965683 3.313441 3.761474 4.341689 5.196240
2025-02-23 2.267033 2.517886 2.821326 3.228710 3.786077 4.569645 5.875937
2025-03-02 2.161190 2.431051 2.767576 3.238032 3.919745 4.962987 6.974177
2025-03-09 2.071768 2.353237 2.712644 3.231722 4.021340 5.326931 8.257590
2025-03-16 1.981281 2.265516 2.634463 3.179838 4.039893 5.551622 9.445526
2025-03-23 1.939788 2.237300 2.631875 3.233617 4.231594 6.154186 12.489529
2025-03-30 1.861641 2.155135 2.548022 3.155519 4.186539 6.263525 14.170907
2025-04-06 1.788545 2.075897 2.463094 3.067710 4.111148 6.284945 15.647404
2025-04-13 1.732252 2.016690 2.402932 3.013154 4.087799 6.422794 18.445464
2025-04-20 1.710863 2.003731 2.407542 3.060708 4.260167 7.118966 32.836921
2025-04-27 1.696938 1.999991 2.424697 3.129501 4.486794 8.117845 2660.091841
2025-05-04 1.663895 1.969371 2.402220 3.133388 4.590340 8.860266 NaN
2025-05-11 1.636980 1.946294 2.389802 3.153649 4.735586 9.928298 NaN
2025-05-18 1.589066 1.891345 2.325985 3.078050 4.650395 9.967373 NaN
2025-05-25 1.564176 1.868428 2.310085 3.086535 4.764235 11.100432 NaN
2025-06-01 1.537763 1.842213 2.287579 3.080843 4.843266 12.223994 NaN
2025-06-08 1.503914 1.804022 2.244569 3.033946 4.810597 12.646267 NaN
2025-06-15 1.492828 1.798521 2.252520 3.082556 5.036544 15.589840 NaN
2025-06-22 1.457397 1.756107 2.199924 3.011935 4.926682 15.354684 NaN
2025-06-29 1.421584 1.712349 2.143950 2.932304 4.784264 14.682519 NaN
2025-07-06 1.393519 1.679436 2.104449 2.882708 4.721382 14.832282 NaN
2025-07-13 1.385878 1.676452 2.112746 2.925944 4.928012 18.841338 NaN